In attempt to anticipate where gold might go, Jeff Clark of Casey's Gold and Research Report has looked at some possibilities. If the price of gold matches the 23.5% average of price surges since 2001, gold would hit $1,428 in the current run-up. If it matches the maximum surge of 35.5% since 2001, it would settle at around $1,567.
Regardless of what gold does over the next few months, I think 20%+ surges will continue throughout this bull market, with the occasional 30% punch. And a doubling of the gold price in a matter of months is also likely in our future, a sure sign of the Mania phase. Gold surged 128.5% from October 8, 1979, to January 21, 1980. A similar vault today would have the price jumping from, say, $2,400, to $5,484 in less than four months. Yes, I think that's entirely possible and perhaps probable.
How high will gold ultimately go? I look at it this way. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe isn't over. The sovereign debt crisis in the U.S. hasn't started. We will almost certainly see more quantitative easing (i.e., money printing). We have artificially low interest rates. The U.S. dollar is basically at the same level it was two years ago. We have no official inflation and certainly no big inflation. Less than 5% of U.S. citizens own any form of gold. Central banks are widely expected to be net buyers of gold again this year. Investment demand for gold is still only 32% of all uses of gold, a far cry from the 54% level reached in 1979. I could go on, but you get the idea.How much gold and silver do you own?
The only way you can benefit from these surges is to be long gold. If you haven't been a part of one, I guarantee you it's a lot of fun. Gold is more important than that, of course; it's your personal safe-haven asset. Buy on pullbacks, slowly increasing your holdings so that what you own makes a difference in your portfolio, both for asset protection and profit potential.
And then, hang on.
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