Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Is the money supply shrinking?

That depends on how you measure it. Using popular monetary aggregates M2, M3, or MZM, you could draw the conclusion that the money supply is stagnating. However, all three of these measures include non-monetary components that skew their results, writes Steve Saville.
Judging by M2, M3 and MZM the US is now in, or bordering on, monetary deflation. However, TMS (True Money Supply) has risen by more than 13% over the past 12 months.
He observes:
Even though the money supply is growing rapidly, if Bernanke and his cohorts believe that the money supply is growing slowly, or not at all, then they could be encouraged to double their efforts on the inflation front. Under the current monetary system, nothing promotes inflation more effectively than fear of deflation.